Climate change poses a significant threat to global energy security, yet the mechanisms through which this relationship unfolds—and the factors that buffer their adverse impacts—remain underexplored. This study examines the link between climate change, proxied by CO2 emissions, and energy security risk (ESR), with a particular focus on the mediating roles of green patent, institutional quality, and human capital. Utilizing a newly compiled historical dataset encompassing ESR and climate indicators, and applying a suite of robust empirical strategies—including sensitivity tests, alternative variable specifications, and instrumental variable techniques—we provide compelling evidence that rising CO2 emissions substantially elevate ESR across GCC countries between 1990 and 2023.

  Importantly, we find that the interaction between climate change and the tripartite mediating factors reduces ESR significantly. Additionally, the study establishes threshold levels for these mitigating factors, beyond which they effectively transform energy insecurity into energy security. Moreover, the efficacy of these mitigating effects appears to be conditioned by macroeconomic and demographic factors, manifesting more strongly in contexts characterized by higher levels of economic development and stable population dynamics. To enhance the buffering capacity of these factors, policy efforts should prioritize the development of resilient energy systems, demographic sustainability, and stringent environmental governance.

  These findings offer timely and actionable insights for GCC countries and other fossil fuel-dependent economies striving to align energy security objectives with long-term climate resilience.